The only match between top-ten teams in the Euro 2024 round of 16 takes place on Monday as world #2 France (1-2-0, 5 PTS, +1 goal differential) meet #3 Belgium (1-1-1, 4 PTS, +1 goal differential) at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf at 12:00 pm ET.
Neither team played up to its potential in the group stage. France earned a 1-0 over Austria before drawing Netherlands (0-0) and Poland (1-1). Belgium started with a stunning 1-0 loss to Slovakia before rebounding with a 2-0 win over Romania and a 0-0 draw with the Ukraine.
Oddsmakers are considerably more confident that France will turn it around, setting Les Bleus as -105 favorites in the France vs Belgium odds at bet365. Belgium is +380 to win in regular time while the draw is +230. The odds to advance to the quarterfinals list France at -225 and Belgium at +175.
France vs Belgium Predictions
Under 2.5 goals (-150) at bet365
Belgium +0.5 (-120) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 23-7-1 (+17.27 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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France have gotten the better of long and storied head-to-head with neighbors Belgium of late, winning the only two meetings in the past six years (1-0 during the 2018 World Cup, and 3-2 during the 2021 Nations League). Belgium s last victory over France came during in a thrilling 4-3 friendly in 2015.
But the current French side does not look much like the group that averaged 2.14 goals per game while finishing runner-up at the 2022 World Cup. In that tournament, France scored at least two goals per game in every fixture of consequence. (The only outlier was a 1-0 loss to Tunisia in the final group-stage game when France had already qualified for the next round and rested most of its usual starters.)
That s not to say France hasn t been generating chances at the Euro. They finished their three group-stage games with 5.83 xGF over 270 minutes compared to just 2.18 xGA.
The same could be said of Belgium, though. Domenico Tedesco s squad generated 4.79 xGF and allowed 2.28 xGA in its three group-stage games and Romelu Lukaku had three goals ruled out by VAR, two that would have equalized against Slovakia.
With its preferred back-four intact which it was against Romania and Ukraine, but not against Slovakia Belgium has yet to concede a goal.
Pundits tend to harp on the increasing age of Belgium s so-called golden generation (Jan Vertonghen is 37, Kevin De Bruyne is 33, Lukaku is 31, and Yannick Carrasco is 30). But I see that as an overblown concern. Belgium ran through a challenging Group F which included Austria and Sweden going 6-2-0 with a +18 goal differential.
They are still ranked #3 in the world precisely because they remain one of the most dominant teams on the planet, and I will gladly taken Belgium to secure at least a draw in regular time at -120.
Best France vs Belgium Odds
